New Realities Impact Our Ability to Forecast Natural Gas Markets.

The 2018 cold snap in the North American East created multiple operational disruptions and sent prices of some energy markets, including natural gas, skyrocketing. What drew our attention to this event is the observation that it reoccurs almost every year and with the same consequences. So, we looked back at the history trying to find answers to some of the questions: “Why cannot the industry respond to these repeated weather outbursts? Could it be the inability to build reliable projections? If so, is it possible to improve them? Is it the issue of the outdated infrastructure? Insufficient data?" 

Part I
Diving into the freeze of winter 2018.

Review of the fundamentals' behavior during the cold snap.

Part II
Historical analysis of cold snaps.

If history teaches us anything - find the relevant history!

Part III 

Methodologies challenged by industry critical events

and ever-changing composition of supply and demand drivers.